NFL Draft Talk

Another NFL draft has come and gone but you cant help but get excited about the upcoming year.  The Draft to me signifies the end of remembering the 08 season and the beginning of looking forward to 09.  I want to mention a few things that stuck out to me….

The Lions will start the rebuilding process (again) as they draft what they hope will be a franchise QB.  The Vikings are clearly the class of the division and the newest Viking, Percy Harvin, should add some spice to that office and take some pressure off Peterson.  If the Packers can shore up their D they have the potential to make a move.  You cant help but scratch your head at the moves of the Denver Broncos since the end of the 2008 season.  I feel the move for new coaching leadership was a good change but it has been all downhill since.  They trade there pro bowl QB which you can understand if they address team needs.  They sign 3 RB’s in the offseason and then pick Moreno with the #12 pick.  They also trade away a 2010 first round pick for a 2009 2nd round pick?  I understand the cost of 1st round draft picks but why not use that pick to obtain a quality CB via trade instead of an unproven 2nd rounder?  KC made some great moves and could surprise some this year.  San Diego is still the class of the division and made quality picks to shore up their weak spots.  The AFC East has got to have the most story lines going into 09.  The Bills made some uncharacteristic moves this offseason.  The Dolphins coming off a strong year and brigning in Pat White to continue to shake up the wildcat offense.  The Pats have Tom Brady coming back and finally the Jets with their Key offseason signings and Mark Sanchez to compete for the starting job. 

Now that the draft is over we should see more free agents fall into place and teams try to finalize their offseason moves and prepare for the 2009 season.  I look forward to more obsevations as we get closer to kickoff weekend!

More Baseball Win Totals

Cleveland over 85 1/2

• Take the over, but not by too much.  Cliff Lee isn’t as dominant as he was last year, but Fausto Carmona isn’t as putrid as he was last year.  Expect a dip from Lee, but improvement from Fausto.  The rest of the rotation is young, but talented. Kerry Wood anchors a solid bullpen, with unheralded set-up men Jensen Lewis & Rafael Perez. The line-up could be awesome: Grady Sizemore could lead the league in runs scored and be a 30/30 man. Jhonny Peralta is underrated – Shin Soo Choo is a solid power source in a deep outfield. The hopes are high for a healthy Travis Hafner – if he plays 140 games and hits 25-30 HRs, this team COULD win 90 games.

 

Milwaukee under 80 1/2

• Take the under – they could struggle to win 75 games.  The lineup is solid <insert Prince Fielder fat joke here>, but could struggle if anyone gets hurt, particularly Ryan Braun or Rickie Weeks.  Bill Hall is only keeping 3rd base warm for uber-prospect Mat Gamel – he could be a better hitter than Braun (but a butcher in the field).  The starting staff is Yovani Gallardo and a bunch of AAAA talent.  Jeff Suppan gets hit harder than Evander Holyfield did in his last comeback attempt.  Manny Parra is average (when Fielder isn’t punching him in the face), and the bullpen could border on wretched.  Trevor Hoffman is starting the year on the DL, relegating potential #4 starter Carlos Villanueva to closer duty.  It’s a good thing that there’s a lot of beer in Milwaukee – one may need to be drunk to watch this team throughout the year.

 

St. Louis over 82 1/2

• Over. Tony LaRussa is a witch & is good enough to win 10 games alone with his management.  The starting staff is looking to border on excellent.  Adam Wainwight has All Star potential, Chris Carpenter has been amazing this spring, and Kyle Lohse & Todd Wellemeyer have had their careers turned around by fellow witch Dave Duncan.  The bullpen is deep, although there is no experienced closer.  The committee includes Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Ryan Franklin.  The lineup has the potential to be awesome, although there is ZERO team speed here.  Troy Glaus’ health is key – 130 games from him hitting behind Albert Pujols & Rick Ankiel would ensure an 85-88 win season. Watch out for prospect OF Colby Rasmus – this kid could be a stud as early as June or July.

 

Philadelphia under 87 1/2

• Under.  The division got much tougher and all the Phillies added was Raul Ibanez.  hamels elbow has GOT to be a concern, as does Jamie Moyer’s age and Chan Ho Park being…well…Chan Ho Park (is he REALLY their 5th starter??).  How much seasoning will prospect J.A. Happ get before Park implodes??  The bullpen is rock solid.  The lineup is great, but there isn’t much depth – especially after releasing Geoff Jenkins.  Chase Utley’s hip HAS to be a concern, as does Ibanez’ age, Ryan Howard’s April & May slumps and Pedro Feliz’ lack of production at 3rd base.  Where the Mets and Marlins have improved, Philly didn’t do enough to keep up.

Plaxico Burress..Michael Vick

These two characters that happen to play football and absolutely ridiculous.  How can anyone give these guys contracts and want them to play for your team anymore?  Michael Vick has come out today and said he is worht $10 million a year.  Are you kidding me?  What i going thru his mind?  He stunk as a QB before he got in trouble with the law and he was making $10 million or more a year and now after the crap he has done, he still thinks he is worth that much money?  I don’t thinks so.  Are there any moral values anymore by any of these NFL team?  While there are struggling Americans trying to put food on the table and provide for their family and not get in any trouble with the law and making $40,000 a year and there is Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress who get in a ton of trouble and are terrible teammates but will still get or want their millions.  These stupid general managers come out like the GM from the Giants saying, we would love to have Plaxico Burress back.. WHAT?!!  This clown cost you a chance at going back to the super bowl because he got in trouble.  He showed no loyalty or respect tothe organziation by getting trouble and beind a complete jackass to his team.   Doe anyone remember two years ago, Plaxico bitching about his contract?  How does reward the Giants after getting his money, he skips meetings and gets fines by the team and gets supsended and then finds himself in a night club shooting himself.  Oh, but the GM wants him back…Sure he does.. Unreal.

I applaud Commissioner Goodell for not taking on crap anymore by these NFL players.   The NFL is bigger than these clowns and I hope this crap ends soon…but it won’t.

Baseball Win Totals

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Atlanta Braves – Under 83 1/2 (-110)

• Take the under.  The pitching on this team could border on awful. Javier Vazquez was a nice signing, but he’s not a #1 starter anymore. And aside from Vazquez, there isn’t a strikeout pitcher in the rotation. They’re also relying on a number of injury risks at the closer position (Mike Gonzalez & Rafael Soriano). Offensively, besides Brian McCann & (when healthy) Chipper Jones, there is little pop and this team has absolutely ZERO speed.

 

NY Yankees – under 95 1/2 (-140)

• I know, I know – they spent a jamillion dollars upgrading their rotation & one position (first base).  The bullpen and bench will be the bane for the Yank$.  Jorge Posada has a dead arm, Hideki Matsui looks old and the middle defense could border on atrocious (Jeter has no arm, Cano has no range & Gardner/Damon in CF are far from Willie Mays….or even Willy Taveras).  The rotation will be good, but you have to worry about Burnett’s health and the fact that Sabathia hasn’t broken down yet.

Minnesota Twins – over 83.5 wins (-115)

• I love their youth, pitching, team speed and defense.  Liriano, Baker, and Slowey don’t walk anybody and trust in what could be the 2nd best defense in the league (behind Tampa Bay).  There is nobody more automatic as a closer than Joe Nathan.  I worry about Joe Mauer’s health, but the rest of the offense has the potential to pick him up, especially if Joe Crede‘s back holds up & Delmon Young finally remembers how to hit for power.  This will be a fun & exciting team to watch.

Arizona Diamondbacks – over 86 1/2 (+105)

• My sleeper pick – take the over.  The potential of Webb, Haren and Scherzer at the top of rotation borders on criminal – you could see 600 K’s betwen the 3 of them. There’s a minor concern at closer with Chad Qualls, but the bullpen is deep enough to cover him if needed.  Offensively, there’s a lot of pop here and Felipe Lopez could return to prominence as the starting 2B and possible leadoff man.  there may not be a better young threesome in a lineup than Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Justin Upton.  They could win 90 in a weak NL West.

More team totals will come in the next few days leading up to the season.

College/NBA – Sunday 3/29

College basketball march madness is the best three weeks of sports wagering and enertainment in sports.  We all know the super bow lis the most watch but that is for only one day.  Those two games yesterday were great.  UConn/Missouri was exciting and up-tempo to watch and UConn finished off Missouri late in the game.  How about the Pitt/Villanova?!  So far, that was the best game of the tournament.

Two more games on Sunday to determing the final four and Louisville looks to make it three BIG EAST teams to the big dance!   Michigan State is an underrated team that can play Lousville but do they have enough at the end to pull off the upset.  UNC should take care of Oklahoma but Blake Griffin is the best player in the toturnament and anytime you have a player like him on your team, you always have a chance for an upset. 

The NBA usually takes a back-seat for three weeks during the NCAA Tournament but the serious sports investor will look for value in NBA lines during this time (we are 11-3 our last 14 NBA plays)..  Here are some games on Sunday they you may want to take a look at. 

Dallas/Cleveland under 191…Dallas struggles on the road to score and we all know how great Cleveland is at home

Atlanta +3.5…Good value here as we look for a letdown by the Lakers

Oklahoma City/Boston over 190.5…The Thunder play zero defense and boston has been putting up some good numbers lately at home

These are all small plays you can take on Sunday…Our best plays going to all of customers.  We have three 10* plays going on Sunday.  Visit our web site ate www.maxxpicks.com and get on today!

Elite 8

We are down to 8 for the ncaa championship and these are 8 quality teams.  Looks like no matter who is in the final four we are going to have quality teams.  UConn/Missouri match-up looks to be a contrast of defensive philpsophy’s.  Missouri wants to press for 40 minutes and trap all over the court while UConn has the big man in the middle and play great half-court defense.  These are two underrated defensive teams and we don’t expect alot of scoring in this one.  Oddmakers posted the total at 150.5 and our power numbers have it at 148.  We look at this game to go under the total today. 

The 2nd game on Saturday should be a classice match-up between 2 BIG EAST powers in Pitt and Nova.  Nova beat Pitt earlier in the year as Nova played tremendous defense against Pitt in that game.  This game is part of our EXECUTIVE package for Saturday so make sure you jump to see who we like.  Nova has tremendous guard play that like to spread you out and take you off the dribble while Pitt has the muscle inside with Blair and look to wear their opponents down defensively.  Should be a great game and fun to watch.

Check back on Sunday for the final two games to determing the final four in Detroit!

Sweet 16 Friday

This should be one of the best days of the tournament so far as there are 4 quality games going tonight.  Look for Arizona/Louisville game to be fun and exciting as Arizona is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  Louisville and their defensive pressure just harass opposing teams guards for 40 minutes.  Lousiville wil ladvance in this one.

Michigan State and Kansas should be fun in a different way.  Both teams play great defense and it should be a close game til the end.  This will be a very physical game and a lot will depend on how the refs call this one.  Free throw shooting should be a key in this one to watch.

The best game of the night in my opinion is Syracuse/Oklahoma.  Blake Griffin is a certain top 5 picks and Johnny Flynn is emerging as one of the best guards in the nation.  Oklahoma playus great team defense and can they shut Syracuse down offensively?  The Cuse 2-3 Zone should give Oklahoma fits and the Sooners will need to extend the zone by hitting some shots early.   Should be fun to watch!

UNC and Gonzaga should be high scoring and fun to watch and we look to see if Gonzaga can play better against upper level teams.  W e know how grea they are against teams in the conference but when they step out of conference and against teams of better caliber they struggle.  The yeven struggled against Western Kentucky.  Does Mark Few and his Stags have any magic in them tonight?  We will see.  Ty Lawson sais he cam back to school for one reason and that was to win a championship.  You know he is in pain but will give everything he has like he did against LSU in the 2nd half last week.  Hansborough needs to be the All-American that he is and UNC bench needs to contribute more for them to be effective.  Should be a track meet tonight and exciting to watch.

Make sure you check out our three best plays on the board for Friday including our Sweet 16 Game of the Year!  Check back Saturday for Elite 8 action!

3/24/09 – World Baseball Classic

As all of my clients know, I love handicappign baseball.  I have won money in baseball 6 straight years and 8 out of the last 9.   The one event I would never even consider handicapping or betting is the WBC (World Baseball Classic).  What a joke this event is.  How can they expect players to be at their best when they should be in spring training getting ready for the season.  I understand why they are trying market the WBC and why they are playing the event.  The more exposure to baseball around the world, the better the major league product will become.  There are sone talented players that you never hear about on some of the other teams other than the US. 

I wish the WBC coordinators would do this event in November.  You can play baseball in November in San Diego, LA, Miami, Houston, or dome stadiums.  More players would want to participate in November than in March.  Until the happens, the USA will never bring theire absolute 25 best players.   The real thing begins in 2 weeks and we will have some future total wins plays in a few days.  Make sure you join today for the entire baseball season!  We look forward to another big year!

Hey, we bounced back nice yesterday going 4-0!  NBA is on a red-hot run as we are on a 9-1 run.  NBA BEST BET OF THE WEEK GOES TONIGHT!

3/23/09 – Chalk Dominating Tournament

The chalk continues to dominate the NCAA tournament and it has been for the last two years.  Everyone is looking for the little guy to advance in the tournament like George Mason and Davidson did in prior years.  Not the case this year unless you want to consider 12-seed Arizona a ‘cinderella’ and highly doubt you do.

What we do have are some tremendous match-ups and should make for an exciting sweet 16 round and elite 8 this weekend.  The only #1 seed that looks a little shaky to me is Pittsburgh.  They have not played well in two games in the tournament and I guess if you are Pitt fan that could be good news because you haven’t seen their best yet.  Louisville had a scare against Siena but I think they come out this weekend more focused and refreshed.  UNC didn’t play in the first half of the LSU game but that was because Lawson di not play.  The ACC player of the year came out in the 2nd half with his superman capeon and destroyed LSU.  UConn looked as dominating as we have seen in quite some time for 1 seed as they dismantled both of the their week opponents in the 1st weekend.

From a handicapping point of view, the favorites continue to cover the spread and makes you wonder will this be the weekend of the dog?  Could be, but you should never handicap a set of games thinking ‘ the favs have covered the first 2 games and now the dogs will cover’.  Every game has different situations and match-ups that we look and we compare them t o our power numbers.

Get ready for some fun this weekend in front of the t.v. with these games.  Don’t forget about the CBI, College Insider and NIT tournaments.  From a gambling perspective, we are always looking for value and you will find some value in these games.  Kind of like betting the pre-season in the NFL.  There is value in these games.  We think we found a few tonight ,including our CBI Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR…Hope to see you with us tonight!  Also, the NBA remains smoking-hot as we on again yesterday (8-1 last 9).  Don’t miss our 15* NBA BEST BET for Monday!

March 22nd

We had a bad beat yesterday with the under in Okla/Mich.  Looked like the game was going under until Oklahoma for some dumb reason known to man-kind fouled Michigan with 4 seconds left and of course Michigan made the basket and the free throw to puth the game over the total by a half point…Gonzaga contiues to be  overrated against teams not in their conference.  Thought they would make a statement against a decent WKU team but instead can’t match-up with the better competition outside their conference. 

When you first take a glance at some of the lines for Sunday, some are a little eye catching.  For example Missouri and Marquette.   Our power numbers have Missouri -5.5.  Is Marquette really that good without James running the point?  They just played Villanova tough in the BIG EAST TOURNAMENT and beat a UTAH State team that had won 30 games.  Marquette plays extremely hard and that reflect their passionate head coach.  Xavier is currently -3.5 against Wisconsin.  Our power numbers have Zavier -5.  Looks like Xavier is still getting no respect by the oddsmakers.   Xavier is a quality basketball team and well-coached.  They may be looking ahead to Pittsburgh. 

One intriguing match-up today is Arizona State and Cleveland State.  A 12-seed vs 13-seed match-up.  Arizona is one of the best 12-seeds we have seen in a while and Cleveland State has beat Syracuse and Butler this year.  This game should be fun to watch.  We would lean towards Arizona in this one because of their athletes and point guard play.  General public may now be in love with Cleveland State after their ‘UPSET’ win against Wake Forest.  Wake was the biggest jekyll and hyde team all year.  What a disgrace.  How were they #1 at one point this season?

Best of luck on Sunday.  We have four overall plays for our clients today.  Three in college and big 15* BEST BET in the NBA.  Check back tonight and we will offer some insights on the action for today.  So far we have no information with our High Rollers Program on any major infromation plays going.