Cleveland over 85 1/2
- Take the over, but not by too much. Cliff Lee isn’t as dominant as he was last year, but Fausto Carmona isn’t as putrid as he was last year. Expect a dip from Lee, but improvement from Fausto. The rest of the rotation is young, but talented. Kerry Wood anchors a solid bullpen, with unheralded set-up men Jensen Lewis & Rafael Perez. The line-up could be awesome: Grady Sizemore could lead the league in runs scored and be a 30/30 man. Jhonny Peralta is underrated – Shin Soo Choo is a solid power source in a deep outfield. The hopes are high for a healthy Travis Hafner – if he plays 140 games and hits 25-30 HRs, this team COULD win 90 games.
Milwaukee under 80 1/2
- Take the under – they could struggle to win 75 games. The lineup is solid <insert Prince Fielder fat joke here>, but could struggle if anyone gets hurt, particularly Ryan Braun or Rickie Weeks. Bill Hall is only keeping 3rd base warm for uber-prospect Mat Gamel – he could be a better hitter than Braun (but a butcher in the field). The starting staff is Yovani Gallardo and a bunch of AAAA talent. Jeff Suppan gets hit harder than Evander Holyfield did in his last comeback attempt. Manny Parra is average (when Fielder isn’t punching him in the face), and the bullpen could border on wretched. Trevor Hoffman is starting the year on the DL, relegating potential #4 starter Carlos Villanueva to closer duty. It’s a good thing that there’s a lot of beer in Milwaukee – one may need to be drunk to watch this team throughout the year.
St. Louis over 82 1/2
- Over. Tony LaRussa is a witch & is good enough to win 10 games alone with his management. The starting staff is looking to border on excellent. Adam Wainwight has All Star potential, Chris Carpenter has been amazing this spring, and Kyle Lohse & Todd Wellemeyer have had their careers turned around by fellow witch Dave Duncan. The bullpen is deep, although there is no experienced closer. The committee includes Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Ryan Franklin. The lineup has the potential to be awesome, although there is ZERO team speed here. Troy Glaus’ health is key – 130 games from him hitting behind Albert Pujols & Rick Ankiel would ensure an 85-88 win season. Watch out for prospect OF Colby Rasmus – this kid could be a stud as early as June or July.
Philadelphia under 87 1/2
- Under. The division got much tougher and all the Phillies added was Raul Ibanez. hamels elbow has GOT to be a concern, as does Jamie Moyer’s age and Chan Ho Park being…well…Chan Ho Park (is he REALLY their 5th starter??). How much seasoning will prospect J.A. Happ get before Park implodes?? The bullpen is rock solid. The lineup is great, but there isn’t much depth – especially after releasing Geoff Jenkins. Chase Utley’s hip HAS to be a concern, as does Ibanez’ age, Ryan Howard’s April & May slumps and Pedro Feliz’ lack of production at 3rd base. Where the Mets and Marlins have improved, Philly didn’t do enough to keep up.
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